BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV(0-7) (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV(0-7) (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV(0-7) and inter-day TV(0-7) was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.
Auteur : Wen Bo, Wu Yao, Guo Yuming, Gasparrini Antonio, Tong Shilu, Overcenco Ala, Urban Aleš, Schneider Alexandra, Entezari Alireza, Vicedo-Cabrera Ana Maria, Zanobetti Antonella, Analitis Antonis, Zeka Ariana, Tobias Aurelio, Nunes Baltazar, Alahmad Barrak, Armstrong Ben, Forsberg Bertil, Pan Shih-Chun, Íñiguez Carmen, Ameling Caroline, Valencia César De la Cruz, Åström Christofer, Houthuijs Danny, Van Dung Do, Royé Dominic, Indermitte Ene, Lavigne Eric, Mayvaneh Fatemeh, Acquaotta Fiorella, de'Donato Francesca, Rao Shilpa, Sera Francesco, Carrasco-Escobar Gabriel, Kan Haidong, Orru Hans, Kim Ho, Holobaca Iulian-Horia, Kyselý Jan, Madureira Joana, Schwartz Joel, Jaakkola Jouni J K, Katsouyanni Klea, Diaz Magali Hurtado, Ragettli Martina S, Hashizume Masahiro, Pascal Mathilde, Coélho Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio, Ortega Nicolás Valdés, Ryti Niilo, Scovronick Noah, Michelozzi Paola, Matus Correa Patricia, Goodman Patrick, Saldiva Paulo Hilario Nascimento, Raz Raanan, Abrutzky Rosana, Osorio Samuel, Dang Tran Ngoc, Colistro Valentina, Huber Veronika, Lee Whanhee, Seposo Xerxes, Honda Yasushi, Kim Yoonhee, Guo Yue Leon, Bell Michelle L, Li Shanshan
Environment international, 2024, vol. 187, p. 108712
